Tuesday, 13 November 2007

Hold'em day 2

Second full day of holdem and it has not gone as well as the first. I feel that I've played reasonably well with one obvious exception where I over committed to a flush draw and blew $300. The cards were not with me during today and I was down for virtually the whole day eventually ending up by about $60.

So in money terms it was a poor day but because I managed to retain composure and not panic when I was a couple of buy-ins down it feels reasonably good. Obviously I don't normally worry about the win/loss too much but at the moment I am very results oriented and just need to continue winning so I can completely forget the past few weeks.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1694024

This is the hand which caused my moment of tilt and I think it is fairly understandable as this is as brutal a hand as you can get in holdem. I would absolutely never ever drop this even if I had a huge stack and faced multiway action from other huge stacks. I don't think it is possible to lay this down and I genuinely never even considered it. I assumed he had a full house below mine. Still if I accept that I cannot get away from this it's not such a bad day overall.

I played a lot, over 2000 hands and my winrate overall has understandably suffered due to my lack of progress. Probably a more accurate winrate now and I'd be quite satisfied to maintain it around this level.

Hands - 3923
Profit - $1498.75
PTBB/100 - 4.78

Steve

Sunday, 11 November 2007

Return to Hold'em

And would you look at that, a successful day, a very successful day. There has been a multitude of fist pumping and general expressions of excitement, enthusiasm and less of the ennui which I have at times associated with this fine game.

I haven't played hold'em for about a month and you know what, it's good to be back. The break seems to have refreshed my attitude towards the game and my omaha experiences have probably made me a stronger player. I am very smartly playing below my usual level and am at the 2-4nl game which means a $400 buy in. This has a number of advantages, the main one being that I am not at all scared to lose and am willing to back myself stronger than when playing higher stakes. I make a decision and I live or die by it at these stakes so I am probably a more dangerous player for others to come up against.

Anyway I've won 3.5 buy ins today or $1400ish which feels gooooooooooooooooood. I am not a hugely swingy player at holdem, never have been, never will be. 3-4 buyins is an excellent day and I tend to slowly build with my tight aggressive style. This somewhat less stressful form of poker is very useful for me given recent history in omaha and I have maintained my patience and good humour throughout the three sessions I have played today.

Patience is always key to my success as I win a low percentage of pots but tend to make them count for a lot so if I allow frustration to sink in my gameplan suffers accordingly. I've enjoyed my play today, made a few well calculated bluffs along with some less well calculated ones. Have managed to extract huge value from my big hands and the worst hand in terms of profitability today has been AA where I've lost $250. Usually AA is my biggest winner, in fact long term it is by a massive amount and I play it well. Sadly I've been a bit unlucky with it today whereas QQ has been marvellous. Thank you ladies!

I needed today. I really really did, although I know that I now have to continue where I have left off it feels good to have not only played well but been rewarded for it too. I'm gonna post two hands from today (ones where I win) and discuss to some degree.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1688770

This first one is hugely, hugely significant as for the first time in a long time I flopped top set and it won.Let me repeat that IT WON. It was not the nuts when I bet or went all in as he could have had a straight however there is zero chance I am putting that hand down on the scant possibility of 9T being my opponent's holding. I always feel that aggressive play rewards itself when done in a controlled fashion and this hand my aim was to calculate bet size to ensure my opponent committed his whole stack should he have a big hand. He did andsadly for him I had a higher set. This is a really tough beat in hold'em and I would probably have gone down in similar fashion with his hand. BUT I won with top set lalalallalalalala, can you tell that this is a significant weight off my previously overburdened shoulders.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1688734

I reraised a fair amount preflop today with AK and many others but decided to play it slower in this one and the AK7 flop seemed to be a bit of a gift. I checked to the preflop raiser adn was quite sad that nobody else called to juice the pot a bit. Anyway as I was out of position I raised to $100 (had I been behind him in the play I would have flat called most times) and for some reason which I truly can't explain he pushed all in for $300 with AQ. Idiot! What can I have which I check raise with which he is beating. So unlikely that he isn't drawing very very light and a call or fold were the only real options in my opinion. Multiway pot where I check raise when I must suspect he has an A should send warning signals but apparantly and luckily not.

The only other hand I'd like to mention is one where I faced an overbet flop from the raiser with A87 showing and two clubs. I like the overbet as a sign of weakness where you really have a monster and fell hook, line and sinker for it on this occasion as I didn't think my opponent was that smart. I pushed all in over the top with my AQ only to be quickly called (never good) by his AK. I spiked a Q on the turn to take down a $500 pot and boy did a suckout feel good. This sort of thing just hasn't happened for me over the past 2 weeks, in fact it has happened always against me on every occasion so this turn of fortune managed to give me some spark back and I would say that today I have actually run well and a bit above expectation. Maybe I'm due eh!

Anyway I'm going to sign off by giving my stats for the day, and I may be doing this a bit more regularly

Hands - 1786
Profit - $1424.72
PTBB (per 100) 9.97

Good win rate, great win rate in fact. For those of you who do not understand the PTBB it stands for Poker Tracker Big Blinds per 100 hands. Poker tracker big blinds are for some reason calculated differently to what makes sense to me but if you double it then you have the real rate. So I've won nearly 20 BB per 100 hands today or $80 per 100 hands. I'll take it, considering I can get in around 300 hands an hour that is a useful rate and one which I would like to see continued.

It's not a loss, get in, get in, get in, maybe I can play after all

Steve

Saturday, 10 November 2007

Poker & Confidence

I do believe that success in poker is irretrievably linked to the confidence which you carry into each game which you play. Confidence is absolutely crucial in correct decision making at the poker table, if you are lacking confidence the parts which are most affected to my mind is your play of marginal hands and ability to let the big ones go.

Let me explain what I am driving at. The confident player makes his decisions based upon maths or feel and worries not about the result but about making the correct decision in any given situation. For this reason he is able to push the narrow margins, make the extra value bet on the river or reraise with nothing as he senses weakness.

By contrast the player who has suffered numerous bad beats or is just in the wrong state of mind and has low confidence will not make the extra bet on the river "because I might be beat", will not reraise the weak player as "he's bound to realise I'm at it" In this way although it is not necessarily 'bad' play but it is sub-optimum and will massively affect the bottom line at the end of the month.

The area which really hurts the low confidence player however is getting attached to hands as "surely this one has to win" for instance having KK reraising pre-flop and then getting raised all in by the tight player opposite - what do you think he has, if you have been paying attention you may be 95% certain he has AA and correctly fold, however if you are low on confidence and have been awaiting a hand to hang your hat on then you call and act like it is impossible to get away from that hand.

Obviously a lot of this will come down to your judgement of the players you face, it is hard but by no means impossible to fold KK pre flop especially if all signs indicate that you are beat. However if you are on a bad run that hand suddenly is too good to lay down.

This is not a typical example of this situation where confidence prevents you laying a hand down. Convincing yourself that the player is trying to bluff you off your straight on the river when the flush card hits is so easy to do if you lack confidence. Rather than analysing the situation and working out how likely it is you are still ahead you decide to go with the hand without much thought because you "deserve to win" after all you held the best hand throughout, right until that river card screwed you.

I am certainly a confidence player and my main failing when I lack confidence is failing to value bet the river as I'm scared of being reraised. When this happens it does majorly affect my earnings as when you think about it that is where most of the value comes from a hand as the pot is already large and any bet you make will have to be moer significant in value purely due to this fact.

Although I don't believe my current deep dark lack of confidence has affected my actual play in omaha I am scared that it will in hold'em. I won't know this until I have played for a few days and it is possible that my confidence shall return but it is a bit of a worry for the moment.

I am currently sat in front of the TV and my mind is sidetracked by thoughts of the next few days. How are things going to go?, am I going to cope? what happens if I start losing or worse start taking a few bad beats early on?

I don't know the answer to these but my predicament terrifies me as although at heart I still know I am a soid winning player in both holdem and omaha, I kinda don't KNOW that any more, maybe it's all going to unravel in front of me, maybe I've just been lucky for the last few years.

Sigh, I just need to focus on long term goals, remember how lucky I am that I am successful in this game and accept the losses and just move on. Now if only it were quite that easy

Steve

Return to the tables

and nothing has changed... before I was consistently getting my money in good 65% favourite + and losing. Sadly that has continued and my fragile confidence has been shattered into a million tiny pieces leaving me doubting whether I can actually do this successfully as a full time career. I know that in terms of expectation I am now running around $20k below expectation on these hands.

I know what some of you may be thinking - I am doing the classic poker player thing of remembering only the bad beats and forgetting all the times where they held up. Sadly I am a realist and am very aware of exactly what is going on and I have plain and simple been a victim of extremely awful luck.

To be honest I have dealt with this appallingly badly in its latter stages as my whole demeanour has been affected, I am moody, stressed, snappy and generally a pain in the arse to be around. I don't want to see or speak to anybody as to be entirely frank I am embarrassed by this current run.

That may seem like a stupid or immature reaction but it sums up how I feel at the moment. I have played nearly 3000 hands since my return and have lost $1500, this in itself is not a huge amount but durin that time on 5 occasions all the money has gone in on the flop or turn where I hold top set and am a minimum of a 60% favourite, I've won 1 of these. ONE, and that is me running extremely well on recent form. On the rare occasions I have got in behind I have failed on every occasion to hit as well.

I know omaha is a swingy game, I'm not stupid or unrealistic BUT I have expectations of at least achieving 50% of my expectation over long periods of running bad but I'm getting nearer 5% on all the big hands. It has been hard to cope with, although I think I've dropped around $12-14k during this period it is NOT to do with the money. In many ways the money is unimportant, I'm up over the last month despite this, I'm secure in how I play and KNOW it is a winning style over the long run. However every bit of joy has been sapped from my being and I am genuinely quite miserable at the moment.

I'm not someone who gets too badly affected by poker usually, I accept bad runs with good humour, I understand that I can't always win and I tend not to tilt too much. I've managed the last one of these well despite the run I;ve had. The others sadly have got to me to such an extent that I feel close to tears after yet another bad beat, I feel physically sick, I have lost interest in many of the more important things in my life and am generally feeling about as low as I ever have in my life.

It is hard to take a week off come back and have it continue. It is difficult to continuously lose where you should lose and also lose where you should win. I've started to wonder if I have been cursed or done something to offend a supreme being who I don't even believe in. The hardest thing is to gain no reward for solid disciplined play and in fact be punished financially for it.

I did something I very very rarely do and told someone at my table to f**k off yesterday. This was after the all too familiar top set by me was cracked by another donkey call. T75 rainbow flop and I got called after my all in pot raise by a hand which consisted of 46XX with a backdoor flush out and I proceeded to get heartily f**ked.

Not only was this a godawful call, seriously awful in every way as he was obviously behind literally every possible hand I could have but he proceeded to inform me that he was 38% for the hand and had odds to call. I would have gladly punched him in his stupid ignorant face. He had 8 definite outs and even if he hit I could redraw to my full house. I was comfortably over a 70% favourite in this hand. I usually take this stuff in my stride and ignore it but it's just unbelievable. People are so stupid at times and seemingly stupidity is the key to beating me. Just wait until I look like I must have a big hand and stick all your money in. I guarantee that you will beat me!

I'm not trying to say that I am a flawless player, I'm not saying that I have a right to win above anyone else. I play poker largely by mathematics and I am currently on a statistically unlikely run of bad fortune. Sadly I do not have the heart to ride this out as it must surely end at some point. I am not willing to finance my play at the stakes I wish to play at to an extent where I may start losing overall. And most importantly I'm not prepared to be the person I have been for the last two weeks, I'm meant to be relaxed, happy and gradually winning enough to live very comfortably on... and I'm not right now, far from it.

SOOOOO what am I going to do you may ask. Good question and sadly one which keeps flitting through my brain and is failing to be answered to a satisfactory level. Well here is what I have come up with as a plan. God knows whether I will stick to it but I believe I will.

I'm quitting omaha for the time being as it is making me miserable. I don't really want to do this as I think my long term win rate is far better in this than it is in holdem but just for now I cannot handle the game. Therefore I will be returning to the game I have consistently beaten for the last 3 years although playing 2-4 rather than 5-10 for the moment as I just couldn't cope with losing 3-4 buy ins at 5-10.

I currently have $3k in my poker account and will play 2-4 until I build up to $5k then I may allow myself to play some 5-10 but we shall see. Don't know how this will go, also don't know what the hell I'm going to do if I start this by going on a losing streak (god I hope not) however that has to be the plan for the time being.

I can only apologise for not posting much recently, I do tend to do this, last time I went on a bad run my posting became less frequent as I go into my shell a bit and am less willing to share my mental state with people. I hope I've managed to give a very honest account of how I've been feeling and show that although life as a poker pro may be a fun and exciting career when it is going well it can be soul destroying if it goes really badly.

I shall try to get back to posting more regularly and may put in a progress counter to show how well or badly it is really going. Stupid thing is that I am actually relatively satisfied with where I am financially through the last 6 weeks - it's not brilliant earnings but it pays the bills. It's just how it has occurred and the heart wrenching downturn I have had.

Ah well, start over and refocus back on holdem

Steve

Saturday, 3 November 2007

Time off should really mean time off

Can't get my head away from poker because of recent results and because of this decided to deposit smaller sums on a couple of other sites - same stuff happening and deposits are now no more. I am very very very stressed by all off this and have no idea quite what to do about it. I have had horrendous runs in the past and always come through them so it should be fine, I just NEED a winning day - nothing major just a winning day to see my confidence return a bit.

Right now I will definitely not be playing until friday as I've been stressful for Nat to live with and need to get my mind completely away from this game.

On the positive side I won around 12-13k in three days a week or so ago so all I've done is obliterate most of that, my actual totals are still healthy this has just knocked me for 6 and I'm not dealing with it.

I think when I return I shall go back to the 2-4 or 3-6 games but only when there are higher games running too. I shall also short stack 10-20 when that is at full ring. Hopefully I'll win 2-3k and my whole disposition shall undoubtably improve markedly.

Can't see myself dropping below 2-4 as I'll find the stakes frustrating and that will negatively impede my play so it is best for me to play at something significant yet not soul destroying should I lose 2-3 buy ins

When I come through this it will, like all other times, stand me in good stead for the future, it's just a matter of when that time comes

Steve

Friday, 2 November 2007

Time Off Required

Ok, my curren run has go to me quite badly so instead of putting myself through the mill I'm going to have a week off (have banned myself from party until the 8th) and get my perspective and sense of calm back. Not sure what I'm going to do upon my return, may jump straight back into high stakes or I may try and rebuild from the $1600 in my account by playing lower. I'll make that decision when I return to the game.

This run has been the worst of my life and it's been how harsh it has been rather than the money which has got to me. When you can't win time after time after time when you put all the money in with the odds in your favour it is bloody hard to deal with. I have been reduced to misery by how this has gone and it has been affecting how I feel on a day to day basis, hence why I'm having some time off.

Hopefully when I return I run reasonably and get my deserved equity from the pots I play, not asking much really is it. Even when I was winning I was losing ahuge amount of pots where I was a 60-40 favourite so poker seems to be screwing me quite badly at the moment. Anyone in any doubt as to whether playing poker for a living can be stressful need only read the last few posts to see my mind slowly unravelling. It is not fun when this happens and although I think I am quite good at riding losses and poor luck usually, this run has severely tested me and I have definitely tilted as a result.

May write during the week despite not playing. God knows what I'm going to do if this continues when I resume - another $10k and I'd have to seriously consider quitting omaha for a few months as I don' think my heart could take it.

Steve

Thursday, 1 November 2007

I cannot play any better

However I am currently a huge loser. I am being extremely honest when I say that across the last 30 times I have held top set (and it has been the current nuts) I have got the money all in on the turn or river and lost every single one. The worst I've been is 55% favourite, how can this be happening?

I'm not coping with this at all and was literally shaking last time I got it all in on the turn as I was so scared of the next card - and shock horror it destroyed me. Play wise I am playing fine and am trying to maintain a positive attitude as I am still well up for the month and it is not putting me in any trouble financially. I cannot believe what is happening to me at the moment - it will turn around but I need it to happen soon.

Steve