Thursday 29 November 2007

Restart and try again

After much fruitless searching through my computer I have come to the not unreasonable conclusion that it is beyond saving in its current state. So I have explored my options and reset the whole thing back to how it was when it left the factory. I don't keep that much of importance on my computer so really the only things which I lose by doing this are my poker tracker databases and I'll need to contact support to get a new key to run this with.

So all in all a satisfactory conclusion to the technological difficulties - you may be thinking why did I just not do this before and the honest answer would be because I genuinely did not know it was an option. Shows what I know about computers anyway.

My lethargy towards poker has continued so I've played for about 30mins today and then gave up, maybe tomorrow I shall return to the tables properly

Steve

Wednesday 28 November 2007

Stupid F'ing computer

My laptop has something wrong with it. As to the exact source of this or what the hell is causing it I am none to sure. Excitingly it has recently decided to try dying on me as a regular occurance, throws a strop, bluescreens and crashes and dumps physical memory etc.

Now I am not entirely sure how exactly to fix this. It tells me to download any BIOS updates - done, then to turn off caching and shadowing within BIOS - HOW DO I DO THIS. I don't know where to look and have been trying tonight and cannot for the life of me find where the hell I am able to do this on windows vista.

Even if I work out how to turn these option off it still may not solve the problem and I may have to contact support and send my computer away to be fixed.

I hate things I can't control and technology is right at the top of that list, nothing and I mean nothing is more frustrating and incomprehensible to me as problems with my computer. This frustration is compounded by the fact that it is my work station and main source of entertainment.

I get snappy and irritated over nothing when my computer is being crap. I didn't buy a $2000 top of the range model for stuff to go wrong with it, my old computer had it's share of problems and my new one has decided to join in witht the fun.

Should anyone have any hints suggestions or whatever about what I should do I would be delighted to hear them as I have absolutely no idea what I need to do.

Steve

Tuesday 27 November 2007

Lacking focus

The past couple of days I've not really had much of an urge to play. This is quite strange given the fact that it has been going well and usually this results in me being more eager to play. However for some reason each time I sit down with the intention of playing my focus is completely gone and I feel slightly bored by the prospect of playing.

It's quite strange as it is really rare that I feel like this and I'm not quite sure how to rectify it. Obviously a day or two away from the game is a good idea but sadly I don't feel like doing much else either. It may be that a strange lethargy has overcome me with the days getting shorter and it being dark most of the time. I do tend to be more lethargic during the winter and have to force myself to do things slightly more and I guess that feeling like this is just something which I'l lhave to deal with from time to time.

Steve

Sunday 25 November 2007

Continued success

It's been another fine day despite some less than fine beginnings. For some reason when I sat down to start playing my mind really wasn't on the job. Dunno why but sometimes my focus can drift and I knew it wasn't a good time for me to play. Sadly however I pressed on regardless of this and against my better judgement - needless to say a couple of awful calls later I was $500 down and in a less than good mood.

At this stage I have a decision as I can, and often should, switch the computer off and walk away before more damage is done. However losing sometimes leads to me intensifying my focus and really playing well and this turned out to be the case. Grinded my way back to level and then took a break till 5am.

Since coming back on I'm $1200 up at 2-4nl hitting some fine hands and playing beautifully. It's really nice to have two good days in a row and my overall profit is now above $6k in the last two weeks!

Still not moving back up yet as I don't quite feel that it's the right time but it will be soon so watch out 5-10 I'm coming back.

Steve

My best and worst hands

Since returning to hold'em I have logged 17,000 hands across 3 limits, almost all at 2-4 but most of the profit at higher stakes. My overall PTBB/100 is 3.24 but only 1.24 at 2-4 which I think says something for where I have had my lucky hands as much as anything!

Anyway during this the cream of hands has risen to the top and my top 4 hands in terms of profitability are AA,KK,QQ,JJ in that order which is no surprise to me as unlike many I think I play these extremely well. However my recent play has developped a distinct bogey hand which I have run into huge amounts of trouble with. In fact I am -$1300 with it. The hand is a classic trap hand although it is one which I always used to be profitable with and it's KQ.

Seemingly I suck badly with this holding and looking back over it I seem to either win a small pot or lose 100-200 dollars with it. I used to win with this hand in fact it used to be about the 8th most profitable for me. Something has gone badly, badly wrong with it and I am going to have to radically alter my play to rectify this.

I think I will play it a lot more cautiously and avoid raising with it much as this cannot continue and is due to lots of pots rather than one or two bigguns.

Luckily my play with my good hands far outweighs that with my rubbish as I am almost exactly up 4k with AA 3k with KK 2k with QQ and 1k with JJ. Not bad really and the rest of the hands all fit somewhere in the middle. The most I've lost with any other hand is under $400 which shows quite how badly I've played the KQ offsuit.

An the lesson is... buy pokertracker as it'll show you the holes in your game you my not have been aware of. If you are going to take poker seriously this is something I would strongly strongly recommend. How else could you know where you need to improve.

Steve

Saturday 24 November 2007

Not whinging now!!

Right I have definitely been runnign bad in the big pots recently however that has just changed somewhat with one absolute monster on 3-6nl. I'd already got up to $1500 through a nicely played full house on the flop when the below hand came up

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1735766

I have been playing short handed a bit recently and quite enjoying it as it is more aggressive and some people really overplay their holdings. I have a more conservative style with well timed river bluffs and playing my big hands hard. Anyway I had AA pre flop with $1500 in front of me, the guy to my left raised but he also had $1500 so I didn't fancy reraising out of position and revealing some strength and setting myself up to be bluffed later in the hand.

Flop came AT6 with 2 clubs, obviously this is magnificent for me but I want to extract value. I check raised and then very unexpectedly got reraised to $300. Now this is a very interesting situation because of the stack sizes. I KNOW I am very unlikely to get away from this hand if a scare card comes. I also know that most likely he has either a straight flush draw, 2 pair or a set. To be honest I expected the set. Generally he would be unlikly to re-re-raise me in this situation without a BIG hand mainly due to stack sizes.

Anyway having realised this I also thought that IF he had the set he would most likely call any bet as AA was unlikely due to my pre-flop flat call. SO I decided that it was a good situation for me to shove - takes the decision out of it and if he wants to make a bad call with a draw then so be it. Anyway he thought for a LONG time before calling with TT for mid-set. the river brough a 7 which scared me a little as the 89clubs was a possible holding but the $3k pot came to me and turned a bad day into a very very good one.

I have been running bad but this hand makes up for a lot, an awful lot. I am now $5100 up since returning to hold'em and life just feels a touch sweeter right now.

Sadly as I've been playing 2-4 only $1k of this is from 2-4, the other $4k is from 3-6 and a short session of $5-10. I just do better at higher stakes, my game fits them better which is as it should be because that is where I played since April and have logged many hours at 5-10.

In fairness I feel really sorry for my opponent here, I would have thought about dropping the TT but I doubt I could have, it's just too strong in that situation so it was a real cooler for him. Shame!

All my friends and Nat have been telling me it'd turn around and I have been playing with a really positive attitude (and whinging away from the tables) and it's just so nice to have a really good day and win a monster pot.

WOOOOO HOOOOOOOO

Run well when it really matters - that is the key

Steve

I'm so Lucky

Somehow that is not quite true, I'm about level for the day and yet have run into two big pots where the cards have completely screwed me over. First one I get aggressive with AT and having had top pair hit the flush on the river - sadly my opponent has 78DD for a straight flush - 1 card in the deck stacks me and tons result in me winning the pot or stacking my opponent but oh no I lose a $900 pot.

Then KK reraised to $76 preflop - idiot calls with AJ, calls 56 dollars when I have $189 remaining, clever lad. Flop comes QT2 he checks, I push all in as I know he'll call this massive overbet with any Q and he does, with 5 outs. And he hits, it's just farciscal. I have had the single worst month of my life in terms of fortune, so many times I get the idiots to call and time after time they hit - it's seriously way over 50% of the time and it is just time it stopped.

I'm playing really well in general. Genuinely very happy with my game but my luck seems to abandon me in big pots. It is ridiculous and I've had enough. I'm getting nowhere quickly and it is really annoying me. I should be crushing 2-4nl and I'm not and it is gutting. The play is so bad, the play against me is so bad and yet I cannot get a run going. I'm now down since day 1 on 2-4nl.

I promise I'll stop whinging in this blog at some point but I have never experienced a run quite this bad, if they don't call I don't make much, if they do they hit - not fair and not fun

Steve

Thursday 22 November 2007

Frustration taking it's toll

I've not played at my best over the last couple of days, overall it has been mostly good but with a few incidents of tilt where I made decisions which had I been in a different mood or not feeling frustrated I would have made the exact opposite.

I've been playing 2-4nl for about 11 days now and during that time have logged over 14000 hands. However my progress has been snail-like to say the least. On my first day at 2-4 I won over $1400, since then I have won about $100 at this stake. Pretty crap really isn't it. However I have won $800 at 3-6 and $800 at 5-10 so am now over $3000 up in the last 11 days.

I'm not entirely sure why my winnings are not higher, for the most part I have played excellently and suffered some poor luck in key pots. However I think that in the last few days the frustration of playing at a lower stake than I have for the past 6 months has got too me a bit and I may be trying to make things happen and deviating from my usual game with less than brilliant results.

I am very capable of making big laydowns as I've found that generally when a big stack shows extra aggression throughout a hand they usually have me beat - obviously this is not always the case but a healthy ability to drop big hands is hugely important to my game.

The one hand which really really pissed me off was this - I had KK in late position and raised to $16 - 3 callers. The flop came ten high with no flush draws or obvious straight possibilities. The big stack opposite bet $50 into this. As I see it I now have a key decision and a call is weak (this is what I did) although then you can reassess on the action on the turn. A raise will give more info and a fold is actually my preferred move here based on the player. I have limited info and it's going to cost a lot to find out where I am, so folding to a $50 bet is NOT out of the question, I'd probably do this 75% to the big stack in this case. However I called, blank came on the turn and he bet $120 - easy fold in my eyes but I decided to push and got called by the set. Hardly surprising and I hate how I played it. I really hate how I played it, so much so that my couch took a beating from my elbow and that was a fine idea as I now have a bruised swollen elbow for my troubles.

This hand came 20 minutes after England had crashed ignominiously out of the football and 1 hand after I had been stacked on another table where again I had pushed where I would usually fold. SO possibly I wasn't in the greatest mindset when I did this. Annoyingly I knew I was in a bad place and should have left the tables long before this happened.

When things are not going quite as well as I hope these sorts of crushing crippling losses which can be easily avoided really get to me. My bad decisions over the past 14000 hands have cost me over $1.5k because when I make bad choices I make them for my whole stack!

I really want to move back to 5-10 as it is where I belong, wins are more significant and I enjoy the game more at that level. HOWEVER I have set myself targets and until I get them I am not going to do this. I got myself into my current state through a lack of discipline and I'm damned if I'm going to repeat it.

That said I did spy 2 very juicy games earlier so I have played 54 hands of 5-10nl and am over $800 up through that. So I am not totally ruling it out but it is not going to be a regular thing for another week or two.

Although I've not played at my best for the past 2 days I am still up during this time but I feel a bit jaded so am going to have tomorrow completely off poker. Might start watching the Soprano's or something to pass the time.

Cannot wait to move back up and this gives me something to aim for as I am over halfway to the $6k target so it's moving in the right direction at least

Steve

Tuesday 20 November 2007

Progress

I've actually had a reasonable day, hoorrah!! After ending up even yesterday I've made about $800 today and played pretty well really. It's been a very consistent day with small gains at regular intervals and one or two big pots. I've been betting my hands for value extremely well and working out with some decent accuracy whether the scare card on the river has me beaten or not.

I'm now $2700 up since switching back to holdem last week along with about $400 in party points and deposit bonuses alongside this. It's not a bad win rate and has been achieved with minimal stress which had accompanied the previous weeks at omaha. I'm still not happy with my overall win rate as it is currently at 2 ptbb/100 hands which is alright but I'm really looking for around 4-5. Still it is nice to be making some progress and it will hopefully mean that by the start of december I feel in a position to move back up to my 5-10 games and make some real money.

What I need to remember is the omaha experience as I went against all of my principles regarding redepositing money which I had taken out. Yes, I was unlucky and didn't deserve to be losing - far from it, however I created my own hole and lost far more than should be possible given my bankroll requirements and level at which I drop back down.

However I feel that the experience I have had should stand me in good stead in the future as I WILL remember dropping $12k in a week and not want a repeat. I will remember watching my bank account drop down which should never ever happen. And most importantly I will remember how stressed this all made me and sapped my enthusiasm for everything for a relatively long period.

One of the main reasons I have chosen this lifestyle is the quality of life which I can expect, it gives me he opportunity to read, excercise and sleep properly. It means that I can spend more quality time with Nat and these are the benefits which I need to remember when things go badly.

I'm trying to get myself into something of a routine now and have started setting an alarm for 2pm and going to bed some time in the early hours - 7.30am yesterday and it is currently 5am as I write this so it's likely to be a similar time today. If I can get myself back into the routine of excercising when I get up then it will be extremely beneficial as it sets me up for the day and I am able to concentrate better on my game.

If I managed to achieve a similar winrate at 5-10 when I move back up then I'd be looking at over $20k a month and that is without any spectacular success. This is something which I need to remember and keep my focus on the long game and not get obsessed with short term results.

I'm waffling now so I'm going to watch a bit of Red Dwarf and have a look over the day's play

Steve

Sunday 18 November 2007

Another Day Another Dollar - This is almost my current win rate

I'm not sure how much better I can play. Have been involved in 2 pots which were all in affairs, one the guy was drawing dead and the other I was a 4-1 favourite for a $1000 pot, guess what I lost it. So instead of being $1200 up I am about $200 up. It is so disappointing to play so well, be so keyed up and then continue with the run of my big hands losing more than they mathamatically should.

I'm quitting whinging now, I'm playing fantastically well and deserve a lot more success at 2-4nl than I am currently getting. However despite the fact I swear I have run horrifically this week I am still $2k up - I can live with that, it pays the bills and the rest but it just feels like a massive disappointment because I feel it should be double if not treble that figure for the number of hands I've played. My win rate currently sucks and I am due a big BIG day where my hands all hold and I get dealt into a number of coolers where I am on the right side of it!

Overall I am feeling a lot more positive although my luck is not there I am still winning, I am still avoiding tilt and I am building my bankroll up (albeit less quickly than I would like). I have set targets and when I achieve them I move back to where I belong - 5-10nl. The only reason I'm not playing there is that I couldn't handle losing at those stakes right now so I shall win some more and then move back up. Once that happens we may start to see some proper wins and some good weeks/months. I expect to be able to make $15K plus a month and that has been done by me before so my genuine realistic wish is to have a $50k month at some point by early next year. This will happen as I'm bound to run well at some point and when it happens if my game is as solid as it is right now the big wins will follow.

Anyway enough talk of big cash, I'm playing much lower right now without massive success so keeping my head straight and ignoring the higher games etc is essential to my continued rebuilding programme.

Steve

Thursday 15 November 2007

Creating the right mentality for play

You may have noticed in recent posts that I have been getting somewhat emotionally attached to my results which have, lets be honest, not been great. However throughout this period despite internal fears of losing and the fact that my misery at the tables has spilled over into my homelife and meant that I've been a pain to live with (ask Nat), depsite this I have maintained my calm and made good decisions at the tables. There have in nearly 6000 hands of holdem only been one hand which I would play differently. Obviously I have made mistakes and misread situations BUT I have been happy with what I have done in a playing sense.

This is absolutely fundamental to poker and success in the game. If you approach the game with a negative attitude and assume you are going to lose, then shock, horror you will virtually every time. Now I know I have felt like this and have written about it here, but whenever I have sat down to play I have done so looking to win and playing the situation rather than my bankroll. I have not been scared by losing and laid down hands because it all got a bit big in the betting. I have not chased flushes and straights trying to win a monster. I've played good fundamental poker and am genuinely happy with how I have played at both hold'em and omaha.

Sadly results have been in a downward spiral and it is very difficult to look positively when outside of sessions when all you seem to have is misfortune.

Today I sat down after having had minimal sleep but I felt good and was concentraing well so I played a short session. I hadn't intended to play but it felt right for me and I was back into the right frame of mind to play. I've only played 600 hands and have quit for the day as tiredness has caught up with me again. For once hands hit me and I played nicely once more. The very last hand I played before quitting I was dealt AA in early position and the following happened

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1703593

It had been going pretty well and I decided to take a bit of a flier with my AA and overplayed it quite deliberately. I wanted to raise and get one not two callers. This said my raise is one where I am comitting to the pot a quarter of my stack so it is most unlikely I will be folding this regardless of the flop. My usual raise here with AA would be lower but I like mixing it up with my big hands and the overraise felt right to me.

As soon as I was called by the early position caller I put him on AK/JJ/TT. If he had more he would have reshoved and the way he played it the AK felt most likely. Plus he hesitated a lot before calling so I was confident it was not KK.

Anyway the flop came KJ8 which was going to be either brilliant or disasterous. Either way I am playing this hard. I raised just under pot and got put all in. Standard call (can't drop now) and luckily he did have the AK which I suspected. However it is always a relief when it gets pushed to you in these situations. It could have been JJ and gone the other way quite easily.

I've spoken before about how I like the overplay of hands. Usually they either pre or on the flop so I like to do it with big hands and more marginal ones as well so I keep people guessing. Plus because I do get seen (and show) when I do this with lower hands it gives me more margin for getting called and stacking someone when I do have the goods.

After the preflop call he can't do anything but go all in when he hits the K, if he doesn't go in then why has he played the hand in the first place? Anyway it was a superb note to finish on and is a good example of one way I occasionally play AA.

Anyway I won $1000 for the session and that makes rather a difference to how I feel about poker right now.

Hands - 6006
Profit - $1616.95
PTBB/100 - 3.37 (still not high enough 5.0 is the aim long term)

Steve

Wednesday 14 November 2007

Different game same fortune

I'm taking today off now as I've just played 30 hands and lost $600. I am just getting screwed at the moment. First hand I had AA, flat call the raise preflop and reraise on the flop. Guy check raises me all in, I correctly put him on a flush draw and he hits. Not hugely bad but it just hurts as yet again I am a 68% favourite in a big pot and sodding lose.

Next one I have 88 and call the preflop raise and it comes 68T, obviously he has TT and I get stacked again as the river brings he 6 for a full house. I feel horrendous, every day seems to start like this and I just can't get anything going.

I hate this and I'm now $600 up over the last few days and honestly wonder why I bother at times like this. I've been dealt a number of coolers and it really sucks.

My confidence is ebbing away again and it's less to do with confidence in my play and a lot more to do with my confidence in any fortune whatsoever in the hands I get all in with

Steve

Tuesday 13 November 2007

Nothing Happening

I've played another 1500 hands today, I think I've played pretty well, no examples of tilt, some good value bets a couple of well executed bluffs etc, however I don't feel that the cards have been kind to me today. Best example of this is where I call a small raise preflop with AQ get a QQ2 flop and he obviously turns an A to give me a full house and him a higher one with his AA. Just seems that whenever significant money is going in the turn or river is damaging me. Hand after this I flopped top 2 with KQ, bet heavy and the turn came an A to screw me to my opponents AQ.

Not really gone very well and I'm a bit fed up to be honest. I want to see progress in financial terms, sod good play I want to actually win. I keep seeing hugely poor play against others and yet when it happens against me they hit the outs they need. Am about $250 down today and it's not a lot but I really should be doing better than this. Great start on the first day and I seem to have been continuously down since then, never by much but always 200-300. I need a couple of really good days just to cement my position.

It will happen, always does in hold'em, get nothing for hours and then a quick couple of buy-ins however it's just frustrating and it's a bit of a drag putting in 6-8 hours and standing still!

Steve

Hold'em day 2

Second full day of holdem and it has not gone as well as the first. I feel that I've played reasonably well with one obvious exception where I over committed to a flush draw and blew $300. The cards were not with me during today and I was down for virtually the whole day eventually ending up by about $60.

So in money terms it was a poor day but because I managed to retain composure and not panic when I was a couple of buy-ins down it feels reasonably good. Obviously I don't normally worry about the win/loss too much but at the moment I am very results oriented and just need to continue winning so I can completely forget the past few weeks.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1694024

This is the hand which caused my moment of tilt and I think it is fairly understandable as this is as brutal a hand as you can get in holdem. I would absolutely never ever drop this even if I had a huge stack and faced multiway action from other huge stacks. I don't think it is possible to lay this down and I genuinely never even considered it. I assumed he had a full house below mine. Still if I accept that I cannot get away from this it's not such a bad day overall.

I played a lot, over 2000 hands and my winrate overall has understandably suffered due to my lack of progress. Probably a more accurate winrate now and I'd be quite satisfied to maintain it around this level.

Hands - 3923
Profit - $1498.75
PTBB/100 - 4.78

Steve

Sunday 11 November 2007

Return to Hold'em

And would you look at that, a successful day, a very successful day. There has been a multitude of fist pumping and general expressions of excitement, enthusiasm and less of the ennui which I have at times associated with this fine game.

I haven't played hold'em for about a month and you know what, it's good to be back. The break seems to have refreshed my attitude towards the game and my omaha experiences have probably made me a stronger player. I am very smartly playing below my usual level and am at the 2-4nl game which means a $400 buy in. This has a number of advantages, the main one being that I am not at all scared to lose and am willing to back myself stronger than when playing higher stakes. I make a decision and I live or die by it at these stakes so I am probably a more dangerous player for others to come up against.

Anyway I've won 3.5 buy ins today or $1400ish which feels gooooooooooooooooood. I am not a hugely swingy player at holdem, never have been, never will be. 3-4 buyins is an excellent day and I tend to slowly build with my tight aggressive style. This somewhat less stressful form of poker is very useful for me given recent history in omaha and I have maintained my patience and good humour throughout the three sessions I have played today.

Patience is always key to my success as I win a low percentage of pots but tend to make them count for a lot so if I allow frustration to sink in my gameplan suffers accordingly. I've enjoyed my play today, made a few well calculated bluffs along with some less well calculated ones. Have managed to extract huge value from my big hands and the worst hand in terms of profitability today has been AA where I've lost $250. Usually AA is my biggest winner, in fact long term it is by a massive amount and I play it well. Sadly I've been a bit unlucky with it today whereas QQ has been marvellous. Thank you ladies!

I needed today. I really really did, although I know that I now have to continue where I have left off it feels good to have not only played well but been rewarded for it too. I'm gonna post two hands from today (ones where I win) and discuss to some degree.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1688770

This first one is hugely, hugely significant as for the first time in a long time I flopped top set and it won.Let me repeat that IT WON. It was not the nuts when I bet or went all in as he could have had a straight however there is zero chance I am putting that hand down on the scant possibility of 9T being my opponent's holding. I always feel that aggressive play rewards itself when done in a controlled fashion and this hand my aim was to calculate bet size to ensure my opponent committed his whole stack should he have a big hand. He did andsadly for him I had a higher set. This is a really tough beat in hold'em and I would probably have gone down in similar fashion with his hand. BUT I won with top set lalalallalalalala, can you tell that this is a significant weight off my previously overburdened shoulders.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1688734

I reraised a fair amount preflop today with AK and many others but decided to play it slower in this one and the AK7 flop seemed to be a bit of a gift. I checked to the preflop raiser adn was quite sad that nobody else called to juice the pot a bit. Anyway as I was out of position I raised to $100 (had I been behind him in the play I would have flat called most times) and for some reason which I truly can't explain he pushed all in for $300 with AQ. Idiot! What can I have which I check raise with which he is beating. So unlikely that he isn't drawing very very light and a call or fold were the only real options in my opinion. Multiway pot where I check raise when I must suspect he has an A should send warning signals but apparantly and luckily not.

The only other hand I'd like to mention is one where I faced an overbet flop from the raiser with A87 showing and two clubs. I like the overbet as a sign of weakness where you really have a monster and fell hook, line and sinker for it on this occasion as I didn't think my opponent was that smart. I pushed all in over the top with my AQ only to be quickly called (never good) by his AK. I spiked a Q on the turn to take down a $500 pot and boy did a suckout feel good. This sort of thing just hasn't happened for me over the past 2 weeks, in fact it has happened always against me on every occasion so this turn of fortune managed to give me some spark back and I would say that today I have actually run well and a bit above expectation. Maybe I'm due eh!

Anyway I'm going to sign off by giving my stats for the day, and I may be doing this a bit more regularly

Hands - 1786
Profit - $1424.72
PTBB (per 100) 9.97

Good win rate, great win rate in fact. For those of you who do not understand the PTBB it stands for Poker Tracker Big Blinds per 100 hands. Poker tracker big blinds are for some reason calculated differently to what makes sense to me but if you double it then you have the real rate. So I've won nearly 20 BB per 100 hands today or $80 per 100 hands. I'll take it, considering I can get in around 300 hands an hour that is a useful rate and one which I would like to see continued.

It's not a loss, get in, get in, get in, maybe I can play after all

Steve

Saturday 10 November 2007

Poker & Confidence

I do believe that success in poker is irretrievably linked to the confidence which you carry into each game which you play. Confidence is absolutely crucial in correct decision making at the poker table, if you are lacking confidence the parts which are most affected to my mind is your play of marginal hands and ability to let the big ones go.

Let me explain what I am driving at. The confident player makes his decisions based upon maths or feel and worries not about the result but about making the correct decision in any given situation. For this reason he is able to push the narrow margins, make the extra value bet on the river or reraise with nothing as he senses weakness.

By contrast the player who has suffered numerous bad beats or is just in the wrong state of mind and has low confidence will not make the extra bet on the river "because I might be beat", will not reraise the weak player as "he's bound to realise I'm at it" In this way although it is not necessarily 'bad' play but it is sub-optimum and will massively affect the bottom line at the end of the month.

The area which really hurts the low confidence player however is getting attached to hands as "surely this one has to win" for instance having KK reraising pre-flop and then getting raised all in by the tight player opposite - what do you think he has, if you have been paying attention you may be 95% certain he has AA and correctly fold, however if you are low on confidence and have been awaiting a hand to hang your hat on then you call and act like it is impossible to get away from that hand.

Obviously a lot of this will come down to your judgement of the players you face, it is hard but by no means impossible to fold KK pre flop especially if all signs indicate that you are beat. However if you are on a bad run that hand suddenly is too good to lay down.

This is not a typical example of this situation where confidence prevents you laying a hand down. Convincing yourself that the player is trying to bluff you off your straight on the river when the flush card hits is so easy to do if you lack confidence. Rather than analysing the situation and working out how likely it is you are still ahead you decide to go with the hand without much thought because you "deserve to win" after all you held the best hand throughout, right until that river card screwed you.

I am certainly a confidence player and my main failing when I lack confidence is failing to value bet the river as I'm scared of being reraised. When this happens it does majorly affect my earnings as when you think about it that is where most of the value comes from a hand as the pot is already large and any bet you make will have to be moer significant in value purely due to this fact.

Although I don't believe my current deep dark lack of confidence has affected my actual play in omaha I am scared that it will in hold'em. I won't know this until I have played for a few days and it is possible that my confidence shall return but it is a bit of a worry for the moment.

I am currently sat in front of the TV and my mind is sidetracked by thoughts of the next few days. How are things going to go?, am I going to cope? what happens if I start losing or worse start taking a few bad beats early on?

I don't know the answer to these but my predicament terrifies me as although at heart I still know I am a soid winning player in both holdem and omaha, I kinda don't KNOW that any more, maybe it's all going to unravel in front of me, maybe I've just been lucky for the last few years.

Sigh, I just need to focus on long term goals, remember how lucky I am that I am successful in this game and accept the losses and just move on. Now if only it were quite that easy

Steve

Return to the tables

and nothing has changed... before I was consistently getting my money in good 65% favourite + and losing. Sadly that has continued and my fragile confidence has been shattered into a million tiny pieces leaving me doubting whether I can actually do this successfully as a full time career. I know that in terms of expectation I am now running around $20k below expectation on these hands.

I know what some of you may be thinking - I am doing the classic poker player thing of remembering only the bad beats and forgetting all the times where they held up. Sadly I am a realist and am very aware of exactly what is going on and I have plain and simple been a victim of extremely awful luck.

To be honest I have dealt with this appallingly badly in its latter stages as my whole demeanour has been affected, I am moody, stressed, snappy and generally a pain in the arse to be around. I don't want to see or speak to anybody as to be entirely frank I am embarrassed by this current run.

That may seem like a stupid or immature reaction but it sums up how I feel at the moment. I have played nearly 3000 hands since my return and have lost $1500, this in itself is not a huge amount but durin that time on 5 occasions all the money has gone in on the flop or turn where I hold top set and am a minimum of a 60% favourite, I've won 1 of these. ONE, and that is me running extremely well on recent form. On the rare occasions I have got in behind I have failed on every occasion to hit as well.

I know omaha is a swingy game, I'm not stupid or unrealistic BUT I have expectations of at least achieving 50% of my expectation over long periods of running bad but I'm getting nearer 5% on all the big hands. It has been hard to cope with, although I think I've dropped around $12-14k during this period it is NOT to do with the money. In many ways the money is unimportant, I'm up over the last month despite this, I'm secure in how I play and KNOW it is a winning style over the long run. However every bit of joy has been sapped from my being and I am genuinely quite miserable at the moment.

I'm not someone who gets too badly affected by poker usually, I accept bad runs with good humour, I understand that I can't always win and I tend not to tilt too much. I've managed the last one of these well despite the run I;ve had. The others sadly have got to me to such an extent that I feel close to tears after yet another bad beat, I feel physically sick, I have lost interest in many of the more important things in my life and am generally feeling about as low as I ever have in my life.

It is hard to take a week off come back and have it continue. It is difficult to continuously lose where you should lose and also lose where you should win. I've started to wonder if I have been cursed or done something to offend a supreme being who I don't even believe in. The hardest thing is to gain no reward for solid disciplined play and in fact be punished financially for it.

I did something I very very rarely do and told someone at my table to f**k off yesterday. This was after the all too familiar top set by me was cracked by another donkey call. T75 rainbow flop and I got called after my all in pot raise by a hand which consisted of 46XX with a backdoor flush out and I proceeded to get heartily f**ked.

Not only was this a godawful call, seriously awful in every way as he was obviously behind literally every possible hand I could have but he proceeded to inform me that he was 38% for the hand and had odds to call. I would have gladly punched him in his stupid ignorant face. He had 8 definite outs and even if he hit I could redraw to my full house. I was comfortably over a 70% favourite in this hand. I usually take this stuff in my stride and ignore it but it's just unbelievable. People are so stupid at times and seemingly stupidity is the key to beating me. Just wait until I look like I must have a big hand and stick all your money in. I guarantee that you will beat me!

I'm not trying to say that I am a flawless player, I'm not saying that I have a right to win above anyone else. I play poker largely by mathematics and I am currently on a statistically unlikely run of bad fortune. Sadly I do not have the heart to ride this out as it must surely end at some point. I am not willing to finance my play at the stakes I wish to play at to an extent where I may start losing overall. And most importantly I'm not prepared to be the person I have been for the last two weeks, I'm meant to be relaxed, happy and gradually winning enough to live very comfortably on... and I'm not right now, far from it.

SOOOOO what am I going to do you may ask. Good question and sadly one which keeps flitting through my brain and is failing to be answered to a satisfactory level. Well here is what I have come up with as a plan. God knows whether I will stick to it but I believe I will.

I'm quitting omaha for the time being as it is making me miserable. I don't really want to do this as I think my long term win rate is far better in this than it is in holdem but just for now I cannot handle the game. Therefore I will be returning to the game I have consistently beaten for the last 3 years although playing 2-4 rather than 5-10 for the moment as I just couldn't cope with losing 3-4 buy ins at 5-10.

I currently have $3k in my poker account and will play 2-4 until I build up to $5k then I may allow myself to play some 5-10 but we shall see. Don't know how this will go, also don't know what the hell I'm going to do if I start this by going on a losing streak (god I hope not) however that has to be the plan for the time being.

I can only apologise for not posting much recently, I do tend to do this, last time I went on a bad run my posting became less frequent as I go into my shell a bit and am less willing to share my mental state with people. I hope I've managed to give a very honest account of how I've been feeling and show that although life as a poker pro may be a fun and exciting career when it is going well it can be soul destroying if it goes really badly.

I shall try to get back to posting more regularly and may put in a progress counter to show how well or badly it is really going. Stupid thing is that I am actually relatively satisfied with where I am financially through the last 6 weeks - it's not brilliant earnings but it pays the bills. It's just how it has occurred and the heart wrenching downturn I have had.

Ah well, start over and refocus back on holdem

Steve

Saturday 3 November 2007

Time off should really mean time off

Can't get my head away from poker because of recent results and because of this decided to deposit smaller sums on a couple of other sites - same stuff happening and deposits are now no more. I am very very very stressed by all off this and have no idea quite what to do about it. I have had horrendous runs in the past and always come through them so it should be fine, I just NEED a winning day - nothing major just a winning day to see my confidence return a bit.

Right now I will definitely not be playing until friday as I've been stressful for Nat to live with and need to get my mind completely away from this game.

On the positive side I won around 12-13k in three days a week or so ago so all I've done is obliterate most of that, my actual totals are still healthy this has just knocked me for 6 and I'm not dealing with it.

I think when I return I shall go back to the 2-4 or 3-6 games but only when there are higher games running too. I shall also short stack 10-20 when that is at full ring. Hopefully I'll win 2-3k and my whole disposition shall undoubtably improve markedly.

Can't see myself dropping below 2-4 as I'll find the stakes frustrating and that will negatively impede my play so it is best for me to play at something significant yet not soul destroying should I lose 2-3 buy ins

When I come through this it will, like all other times, stand me in good stead for the future, it's just a matter of when that time comes

Steve

Friday 2 November 2007

Time Off Required

Ok, my curren run has go to me quite badly so instead of putting myself through the mill I'm going to have a week off (have banned myself from party until the 8th) and get my perspective and sense of calm back. Not sure what I'm going to do upon my return, may jump straight back into high stakes or I may try and rebuild from the $1600 in my account by playing lower. I'll make that decision when I return to the game.

This run has been the worst of my life and it's been how harsh it has been rather than the money which has got to me. When you can't win time after time after time when you put all the money in with the odds in your favour it is bloody hard to deal with. I have been reduced to misery by how this has gone and it has been affecting how I feel on a day to day basis, hence why I'm having some time off.

Hopefully when I return I run reasonably and get my deserved equity from the pots I play, not asking much really is it. Even when I was winning I was losing ahuge amount of pots where I was a 60-40 favourite so poker seems to be screwing me quite badly at the moment. Anyone in any doubt as to whether playing poker for a living can be stressful need only read the last few posts to see my mind slowly unravelling. It is not fun when this happens and although I think I am quite good at riding losses and poor luck usually, this run has severely tested me and I have definitely tilted as a result.

May write during the week despite not playing. God knows what I'm going to do if this continues when I resume - another $10k and I'd have to seriously consider quitting omaha for a few months as I don' think my heart could take it.

Steve

Thursday 1 November 2007

I cannot play any better

However I am currently a huge loser. I am being extremely honest when I say that across the last 30 times I have held top set (and it has been the current nuts) I have got the money all in on the turn or river and lost every single one. The worst I've been is 55% favourite, how can this be happening?

I'm not coping with this at all and was literally shaking last time I got it all in on the turn as I was so scared of the next card - and shock horror it destroyed me. Play wise I am playing fine and am trying to maintain a positive attitude as I am still well up for the month and it is not putting me in any trouble financially. I cannot believe what is happening to me at the moment - it will turn around but I need it to happen soon.

Steve