and nothing has changed... before I was consistently getting my money in good 65% favourite + and losing. Sadly that has continued and my fragile confidence has been shattered into a million tiny pieces leaving me doubting whether I can actually do this successfully as a full time career. I know that in terms of expectation I am now running around $20k below expectation on these hands.
I know what some of you may be thinking - I am doing the classic poker player thing of remembering only the bad beats and forgetting all the times where they held up. Sadly I am a realist and am very aware of exactly what is going on and I have plain and simple been a victim of extremely awful luck.
To be honest I have dealt with this appallingly badly in its latter stages as my whole demeanour has been affected, I am moody, stressed, snappy and generally a pain in the arse to be around. I don't want to see or speak to anybody as to be entirely frank I am embarrassed by this current run.
That may seem like a stupid or immature reaction but it sums up how I feel at the moment. I have played nearly 3000 hands since my return and have lost $1500, this in itself is not a huge amount but durin that time on 5 occasions all the money has gone in on the flop or turn where I hold top set and am a minimum of a 60% favourite, I've won 1 of these. ONE, and that is me running extremely well on recent form. On the rare occasions I have got in behind I have failed on every occasion to hit as well.
I know omaha is a swingy game, I'm not stupid or unrealistic BUT I have expectations of at least achieving 50% of my expectation over long periods of running bad but I'm getting nearer 5% on all the big hands. It has been hard to cope with, although I think I've dropped around $12-14k during this period it is NOT to do with the money. In many ways the money is unimportant, I'm up over the last month despite this, I'm secure in how I play and KNOW it is a winning style over the long run. However every bit of joy has been sapped from my being and I am genuinely quite miserable at the moment.
I'm not someone who gets too badly affected by poker usually, I accept bad runs with good humour, I understand that I can't always win and I tend not to tilt too much. I've managed the last one of these well despite the run I;ve had. The others sadly have got to me to such an extent that I feel close to tears after yet another bad beat, I feel physically sick, I have lost interest in many of the more important things in my life and am generally feeling about as low as I ever have in my life.
It is hard to take a week off come back and have it continue. It is difficult to continuously lose where you should lose and also lose where you should win. I've started to wonder if I have been cursed or done something to offend a supreme being who I don't even believe in. The hardest thing is to gain no reward for solid disciplined play and in fact be punished financially for it.
I did something I very very rarely do and told someone at my table to f**k off yesterday. This was after the all too familiar top set by me was cracked by another donkey call. T75 rainbow flop and I got called after my all in pot raise by a hand which consisted of 46XX with a backdoor flush out and I proceeded to get heartily f**ked.
Not only was this a godawful call, seriously awful in every way as he was obviously behind literally every possible hand I could have but he proceeded to inform me that he was 38% for the hand and had odds to call. I would have gladly punched him in his stupid ignorant face. He had 8 definite outs and even if he hit I could redraw to my full house. I was comfortably over a 70% favourite in this hand. I usually take this stuff in my stride and ignore it but it's just unbelievable. People are so stupid at times and seemingly stupidity is the key to beating me. Just wait until I look like I must have a big hand and stick all your money in. I guarantee that you will beat me!
I'm not trying to say that I am a flawless player, I'm not saying that I have a right to win above anyone else. I play poker largely by mathematics and I am currently on a statistically unlikely run of bad fortune. Sadly I do not have the heart to ride this out as it must surely end at some point. I am not willing to finance my play at the stakes I wish to play at to an extent where I may start losing overall. And most importantly I'm not prepared to be the person I have been for the last two weeks, I'm meant to be relaxed, happy and gradually winning enough to live very comfortably on... and I'm not right now, far from it.
SOOOOO what am I going to do you may ask. Good question and sadly one which keeps flitting through my brain and is failing to be answered to a satisfactory level. Well here is what I have come up with as a plan. God knows whether I will stick to it but I believe I will.
I'm quitting omaha for the time being as it is making me miserable. I don't really want to do this as I think my long term win rate is far better in this than it is in holdem but just for now I cannot handle the game. Therefore I will be returning to the game I have consistently beaten for the last 3 years although playing 2-4 rather than 5-10 for the moment as I just couldn't cope with losing 3-4 buy ins at 5-10.
I currently have $3k in my poker account and will play 2-4 until I build up to $5k then I may allow myself to play some 5-10 but we shall see. Don't know how this will go, also don't know what the hell I'm going to do if I start this by going on a losing streak (god I hope not) however that has to be the plan for the time being.
I can only apologise for not posting much recently, I do tend to do this, last time I went on a bad run my posting became less frequent as I go into my shell a bit and am less willing to share my mental state with people. I hope I've managed to give a very honest account of how I've been feeling and show that although life as a poker pro may be a fun and exciting career when it is going well it can be soul destroying if it goes really badly.
I shall try to get back to posting more regularly and may put in a progress counter to show how well or badly it is really going. Stupid thing is that I am actually relatively satisfied with where I am financially through the last 6 weeks - it's not brilliant earnings but it pays the bills. It's just how it has occurred and the heart wrenching downturn I have had.
Ah well, start over and refocus back on holdem
Steve
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3 comments:
Top class post mate, you encapusulated my mood exactly. I have as I post just got my money in as 75% fav again and had the unjustified call hit to take me out of yet another omaha tourney. I believe that everyone has the same amount of luck but I think the tiing of that luck is a factor that should be looked at more closely. My luck tends to go sideways in tournament all ins or cash bug pots, my mates even laugh as another 1 or 2 outer does me once the pot reaches a good amount for that particualr day. My mate tho i was just moaning till he played with me live for 3 mo9nths and saw for himself that in 3 months I won not one pot that escalated over $1000 and had AA vs JJ at least a dozen or more times to see them hit the J. I hope your luck turns around mate and you post belive it or not has cheered me up in some sort of sad and twisted at least someone else is feeling it happening in this way :-) Andy
That should read the timing of luck is a factor
Have things turned around anyway?
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